Weekend Show – Dana Lyons & Josef Schachter – Volatility Playbook: Gold, Oil, and the Next Big Market Move
Markets are bouncing, but is the worst really behind us? This weekend’s show looks at the rebound in U.S. equities, gold, and energy, while questioning whether it’s a temporary pause or the start of a new trend. We also dig into the latest moves in oil prices and where value may be emerging for long-term investors.
With volatility still driving market action, our guests provide insights on how to navigate the current environment and what sectors may offer the best risk-reward setups right now.
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- Segment 1 & 2 – Dana Lyons, fund manager and editor of The Lyons Share Pro, returns to share his model-driven analysis of U.S. and global markets, cautioning that the recent rebound may be a temporary B-wave ahead of another leg down. He highlights relative strength in international equities and value sectors like utilities and defense, outlines key technical buy levels for gold (GLD), GDX, and GDXJ, and explains why he’s still short oil with further downside potential despite already significant price declines.
- Segment 3 & 4 – Josef Schachter, founder of the Schachter Energy Report, wraps up the show discussing the recent breakdown in oil prices and how it could set up a major buying opportunity in energy stocks. He outlines why he expects a short-term bottom around $55 oil, forecasts a rebound to $80 by year-end, and explains why dividend-paying energy stocks with strong balance sheets and low payout ratios could outperform amid broader market weakness.
Hecla drops 20% after first quarter results
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250501324223/en/Hecla-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results
Anybody an idea what’s wrong with the results that justify a crash?
Thomas, those first quarter results weren’t bad at all. I think the selloff had a couple of drivers that became synergistic. There are those that sell such news and those that “sell in May and come back after Labor Day” and adding to the selling in a big way was BMO Capital’s downgrade of HL from Outperform to Market Perform over concerns about Hecla’s Keno Hill (formerly an Alexco project) and Casa Berardi (formerly Aurizon’s flagship project).
I bought more on Friday when it was down 16% and will buy more if it goes lower and I suspect it probably will. If the “sell in May” phenomenon is in effect this year then HL could go much lower.
I’m betting on Hecla’s expertise over BMO’s analysts.
Btw, BMO’s new price target for HL is $5.50. It was $7.50 before the downgrade.
Hecla had a Q1 net loss of almost $6 million in 2024 but a net income of almost $29 million for Q1 this year.
Santacruz (SCZ) will be posting their 1st quarter 2025 results shortly, I wonder if it will be another event like Hecla, after all this is Sell in May and go Away! I have been lucky lately by selling, maybe it would pay to sit it out, and buy back in. However, I just noticed Santacruz is on a management cease trade order for late filing, (as of this past Friday after the market close) I will just have to wait and see what happens. DT
Hi Ex, just curious what are your top three holdings you mentioned Cerrado as #4, that is interesting, but now that Calibre has rolled over into Equinox they are out of the picture, so I’m curious as to the other three is Santacruz one of them. Maybe you could expand that into your top 5, now that we are getting closer to the Gold derby. By the way chesterfield is the number 1 pick for Churchill Downs. GIDDY-UP!!! DT
Hi DT. Cerrado is not my #4 position, but I am encouraged by their growth profile the next couple years.
My Top 5 positions are:
Santacruz Silver
Avino Silver and Gold
Calibre Mining
Energy Fuels
Coeur Mining
I will say Discovery Silver, Integra Resources, and Sandstorm Gold are all vying for 5th place, with weightings right under Coeur Mining (in 6th, 7th, and 8th place)
Mako Mining, Americas Gold & Silver, Silvercorp, Endeavour Silver, and AbraSilver all come in very closely weighted right after that…
Hi Ex thanks for sharing, it is always interesting! DT
Hecla released their first quarter results and drops 20%
The results don’t look that bad?
The Sweet Sorrow Of Warren Buffett’s Parting
Coincidental timing, or statement about what America has become?
Quoth the Raven – Substack – May 03, 2025
“It’s poetic that Warren Buffett is now stepping down at Berkshire Hathaway after one of the most extraordinary investing careers in modern history.”
“I’ll save you the adulation for his investing acumen and commitment to high-quality American companies, as the financial news will be replete with these testimonials for the foreseeable future.”
“I’ve occasionally tried to shine a slightly different light on Buffett because, in addition to being a savvy investor, he was also a tremendous beneficiary of monetary policy that simply kept markets moving higher over time. But don’t get me wrong: Buffett’s knack for outperforming the overall market undoubtedly solidifies him as legend.”
“He’s also far more of a shark than most people believe him to be. Some of the stories that get passed around in the financial underworld paint a very different picture of Warren Buffett than the jolly old man happy to sit and laugh with Becky Quick. His patience was unmatched, and his ability to leverage his brand into extraordinarily favorable transactions with companies who desperately needed capital became the best self-fulfilling prophecy investment tool there ever was.”
“Because Buffett had all the capital and all the brand equity in the world—and because his cheery demeanor belied his ruthless style—companies sought him out not only when they needed capital, but also a vote of confidence.”
“As I reflect on it now, Buffett was the perfect balance of cutthroat investor and public relations polish. And whether his ‘never bet against America’ shtick was honestly how he felt or not, it was instrumental in driving decades of goodwill toward the American financial system. He was the cornerstone of the list of reasons people globally wanted to invest in American exceptionalism…”
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-sweet-sorrow-of-warren-buffetts
The Quick, and the Dead……….. humm
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”
― Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
My favorite Dickens character is Ebenezer Scrooge. I have no doubt that Buffet had some if not a lot of Ebenezer’s personality running through his veins. The Grim Reaper has a checklist, and we are all on it. LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣
Guys, Warren didn’t die, he just parted ways with Berkshire Hathaway and passed the baton on to the next chief.
Yes, we all have a date with the Grim Reaper at one point…
Another passage from QTR’s piece posted up above dealt with Berkshire Hathaway’s mountain of cash they built up selling into the strength last year, and when it will get deployed.
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“As everybody knows, Berkshire is flush with almost $350 billion in cash. Media has harped on how large its cash position has gotten and everyone has speculated about how and when it said cash may be deployed. Ergo, one way to look at Berkshire today is that the company is waiting to pounce on the next great opportunity. But another way to look at it is that, sadly, there’s nothing worth buying. Buffett’s legacy will not be a couple of major parting investments in America, or in up-and-coming U.S. companies as he has preached, but rather a declaration that there simply isn’t anything out there that deserves his capital right now.”
Buffet’s cash is waiting for the crash, then it will be deployed. Buffet started getting out several years ago, remember he has patience and his successor will too. DT
What does it say about the USD when Buffet is willing to let 350B of them sit around for any length of time?
Portfolio Company Update With A Growth-Oriented Gold Producer – Mako Mining
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (05-03-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/portfolio-company-update-with-a-growth